Measuring Mentality and The Erosion of Confidence

Liverpool have shown resilience at times this season. They have had good spells in most of their matches. And then it goes wrong.

Apr 04, 2026

Liverpool’s 4-0 defeat at Manchester City was a demoralising afternoon for anyone of a Red persuasion. Not that their morale regarding the team was likely that high beforehand.

We saw something which has plagued Arne Slot’s side throughout the campaign, namely a poor reaction to adversity. The below is the shot map for the match prior to the opening goal.

Liverpool were arguably the better side in this period. At the very least, their only real crime was failing to maximise their good opportunities to score or create better quality chances.

Slot was in credit in the game to this point. His men were doing well in a very difficult away game, at a ground were Liverpool have rarely won in the last 15 years. But then Virgil van Dijk conceded a penalty, with this the balance of play for the next 20 minutes (plus first half stoppage time).

A capitulation. Every shot City took in the Liverpool half in this period was converted. The Reds suffered a blow in going behind after starting pretty well and showed little resistance thereafter. This has occurred on multiple occasions in 2025/26.

It wasn’t happening at the start of the campaign, though. Liverpool recovered after letting leads slip to win multiple matches. Even when they were coming to terms with a horrendous tragedy, they had the belief and muscle memory of champions. Equalisers for Bournemouth, Newcastle, Atlético Madrid and the might of Southampton didn’t matter to them.

We go again. We win.

Seeing their advantage in the Merseyside derby halved with over half an hour left to play might have led to nerves. But no.

We see it out. We win.

And then came Crystal Palace, the first of 15 defeats this season (with the count unlikely to be over on that front). Liverpool went in at the break grateful to only be one goal down after a dismal first half. They regrouped, improved markedly and got a deserved equaliser. Here’s the second half data prior to the winning goal.

There were no issues with belief or mentality there. It was arguably trying to counter to win the game in the 97th minute that caused the defeat. Overconfidence may have been an issue if anything was.

The late sucker punch from Eddie Nketiah would have taken a toll, compounded by defeats at Galatasaray (to a very soft penalty) and Chelsea (to another stoppage time winner) in the following two games.

We don’t see it out. We lose.

An even bigger punch to the nuts was to come: an Anfield defeat to Manchester United. Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United, for pity’s sake. The Reds had now lost four consecutive matches despite amassing 8.6 non-penalty expected goals and conceding 5.8. How’s your belief now, lads? You must be wondering if it’s all worth it when you’ve lost your mate and every mistake is punished.

A month later, Nottingham Forest were in town. This match was the precursor to what unfolded at the Etihad Stadium this weekend. The shot map here shows what had played out before Murillo scored in the 32nd minute.

This is a dominant performance. Rarely will the cliché ‘goals change games’ have been more apt. The Reds’ collapse thereafter in this game was as spectacular as it was painful, crushing belief further.

Confidence cannot be measured on a linear scale. There have been disappointing results since the Forest loss that contained sparks of fight.

Liverpool came within seconds of winning at Leeds after being pegged back from 2-0 to 2-2 earlier in the game. Slot’s men swung a 0-2 score line to all square against Bournemouth before conceding a late (drink) winner (drink) from a long throw-in (drink). They came from behind to take the lead in stoppage time at Fulham, only to see a player who barely features find the top corner from a different postcode. All of these moments, hammering away at the diminishing block of confidence.

This is not to say Liverpool performed well for the entirety of all of these matches, or even that long in some of them. This is to examine the spirit crushing nature of what has played out. We question the mentality of a group of grieving young men when we had few concerns on this front early in the campaign.

They were almost certainly papering over cracks early in the season but doing so with full belief in themselves. Belief in trying to win something for Diogo, most likely. The Reds were initially contesting what proved to be defeats until the final whistle in most cases too.

There are probably only so many setbacks that even elite sportspeople can stand. The Liverpool squad suffered a bigger collective loss than almost every other team in history has had to endure, then a series of points dropped late on in games. It’s maybe a wonder they have any spirit left at all.

Arne Slot likely won’t see it out. He’ll lose.