The Aggregate: Milos Kerkez's Added Value for Liverpool
Milos Kerkez will bring pace to Liverpool's squad while being available every week. His value in possession may have gone under the radar though.
Liverpool’s squad has grown increasingly Dutch this summer. It looks set to become more Hungarian too.
Rumours linking Bournemouth left-back Milos Kerkez with a move to Anfield have rumbled on for months. The 21-year-old is an international teammate of Dominik Szoboszlai and was signed for the Cherries by the Reds’ now sporting director, Richard Hughes. This stuff writes itself.
There have been numerous articles regarding what Kerkez will bring to Liverpool, as it seems inevitable a deal will be completed. He has a lot of selling points.
Opta Analyst went with Milos Kerkez Can Be Liverpool’s Ideal Successor to Andy Robertson for their headline. One notable statistic for the Hungarian which emerged in the piece is that he works both sides of his winger. “In the Premier League this season, only two players made more overlapping runs than Kerkez (66), while no one underlapped more often than him (52),” wrote David Segar.
In Milos Kerkez to Liverpool? Bournemouth left-back could be a perfect replacement for Andy Robertson, Sky Sports’ Nick Wright noted that the Bournemouth defender “ranked among the Premier League's top five players for both sprints and distance covered last term, displaying impressive robustness.” If the Reds need someone to patrol the left flank at speed for 90 minutes twice a week, they’ve found him.
As impressive as these facts are, the Opta article also noted that “Kerkez was one of just six outfield players in the Premier League to start all 38 games for his team this season.”
Cue ‘Availability is the best ability’ cliché klaxon.
But one of the things we learned about Arne Slot in his first campaign in charge is that he favours a very settled side. The Liverpool of 2024/25 became just the 12th side in the 38-game Premier League era to have 10 players start at least 28 matches. Their head coach will love an energetic full-back he can rely upon week after week.
Slot is already aware of the threat Kerkez poses too. The youngster started for AZ Alkmaar home and away against Feyenoord in their Eredivisie-winning campaign. Liverpool also made a tactical adjustment with Ryan Gravenberch in their 2-0 win at the Vitality Stadium this season, with the Dutchman playing further to the right to counter the Cherries’ dangerous left side.
“It's clear that if you leave Trent [Alexander-Arnold] constantly with [Antoine] Semenyo and Kerkez constantly in a two-v-one, that is not the best idea that I can come up with,” Slot said after the game. The mention of his now-former right-back is timely, as there is an important way in which Kerkez can contribute towards the shortfall created by Alexander-Arnold’s exit.
He can almost take care of it single-handedly in fact. That’s right. We’re back in the land of The Aggregate.
Much is always made of Kerkez’s physical gifts. He will also need to contribute when in possession. Sky’s chart of the chances he and Robertson created this season is interesting. The Bournemouth man was far more potent beyond the 18-yard line; if not quite touchline cutbacks, fizzing deliveries from there into the danger zone of the penalty box will appeal to Slot.
As will Kerkez’s on-ball value. OBV is a metric created by (Hudl) Statsbomb which “assigns a value to each action a player takes in line with the positive or negative impact it has on the probability of their team scoring and conceding.”
The data is available to subscribers of Fantasy Football Scout. Kerkez finished 2024/25 with the 15th highest figure in the Premier League (9.92), just ahead of Declan Rice (9.78). The Hungarian was Bournemouth’s top player, though with an eye on his likely future home, he was behind league leader Mohamed Salah (16.84) and Alexander-Arnold (11.50).
The data is broken down further into four categories: pass, shot, defensive action and dribble & carry. Kerkez’s shooting cost his OBV total 0.27, roughly a sixth as bad as the -1.60 which Trent subtracted. I told you Slot won’t miss some of Alexander-Arnold’s shooting choices.
Kerkez’s scores were 4.80 for passes, 3.06 for dribbles/carries and 2.33 for his defensive actions. If you set the latter number as a minimum bar for these three aspects of OBV, only two other players cleared them: Pedro Porro, a player many would’ve been happy to see as Alexander-Arnold’s replacement (who is also his top statistical match on FBRef), and Neco Williams, who might have got the gig in an alternate universe.
Remember that the potential Liverpool new boy played 97.5 per cent of the possible league minutes, though. It will be hard for many players to match his totals.
If we assess them on a per 90 minutes played basis, there are far more who meet his minimum of 0.06 for the three non-shot aspects of the metric. However, only 10 others did so when playing at least 1,800 minutes, with the Newcastle pair of Lewis Hall and Tino Livramento the best examples at full-back.
There are better options than time for a factor to even out the data. If a player is going to add on-ball value, they need the ball. Bournemouth’s average possession was over nine per cent below Liverpool’s, with the Cherries taking 83.4 per cent of the live-ball touches that the Reds did.
Whatever Kerkez did in a red-and-black shirt, he will have more opportunities to do once his strip switches to the single hue of the champions. OBV per 100 touches proves it.
Kerkez averaged 58.2 live touches per 90 in 2024/25, below Robertson’s 75.5 and Alexander-Arnold’s 85.6. If we divide those figures by their team’s average, we find the Hungarian had 10.2 per cent of Bournemouth’s total, below the 11.1 and 12.6 of the Scot and Englishman respectively.
At Liverpool, Kerkez will therefore be more involved for a side which has more possession than was the case for him on the south coast.
Let’s finish with a boatload of hypotheticals, the first of which being that the player actually signs for the Reds. If Kerkez maintains his 2024/25 numbers for OBV per 100 touches and minutes played while averaging as many touches as Robertson, his total OBV next season would be 12.21. That would’ve been fifth most in the division this term.
With a Trent level of involvement, Kerkez would’ve been second on 13.84, a cigarette paper behind Salah’s 13.88 from 2023/24. Even if he will need to play almost every minute to reach such great heights, Kerkez’s on-ball value should take a few people by surprise next season. Hopefully these people include right-sided players on teams facing Liverpool.
These findings perhaps illustrate the value of statistics when you don't watch a player every week. I'd have never guessed Kerkez was one of the leading players for on-ball value, yet here we are.
Thanks for the inclusion of the OBV stats! Kerkez is a puzzling signing, given what we know about Edwards/Hughes not overpaying for talent. Don't get me wrong...he's got talent. There's no doubting his work rate as the stats you shared on forward runs + sprints show. While he has trouble keeping up with the most pacy wingers, e.g. Madueke, he's showed great defensive nous & a relentless attitude in challenges. The supporters will LOVE his attitude. He's also got very good progression data when u sum across carries & passes.
The stats don't show a player who's great on the ball though ... a low # touches & less accurate in passing when compared to his peers. He doesn't seem press-resistant or very strong technically ... will he be comfortable in the build-up? Until reading your post, I didn't have the OBV data which does paint a rosier picture of an elite footballer in the aggregate (hoping their model is right!!).
The fee is just surprising if true at £45 million. Cucurella is the only LB that has moved for a larger fee than that reported sum. Many elite LBs have been acquired for a lot less, e.g. Udogie £17m, Davies £16m, Cambiaso £10m. Perhaps the wages will be very low vs. peer LBs?
Your OBV data + Kerkez' attitude/work rate + Hughes' familiarity w him + trust that Edwards has signed off = I'm going with it!