The State of Play in the 2024/25 Premier League
Liverpool appeared to take a decisive step in the Premier League title race recently. Here's a look at the whole division is shaping up as we approach the run-in
It is time for another review of the Premier League season, having last ran the numerical rule over the division during the November international break. While the forthcoming pause in domestic proceedings would be a good time for an update, the most recent pair of match weeks delivered what felt like a decisive double-punch in Liverpool’s pursuit of the title.
The Reds were five points clear after 11 matches when we last took a forensic look at the state of play in the Premier League. At that rate per game, you’d expect them to have a lead of 12.7 after 28 fixtures, et voilà.
The evolution of the chasing pack has not stopped that margin keeping pace. Manchester City were second at our previous checkpoint, ahead of Chelsea and Arsenal. Further down, Bournemouth were 12th, while Crystal Palace sat in the bottom three.
Our old friends Manchester United occupied the place below the Cherries - the bowl? - and returned from the break with new man Rúben Amorim in charge. This review allows us to see how Liverpool’s one-time potential Jürgen Klopp successor has fared in England.
You obviously don’t need to see the table for the Portuguese’s United tenure to know the answer is: not well.
Prior to the most recent round of fixtures, the Amorim era had only seen the newly promoted, doomed clubs accrue fewer points than United. It will take more than a 3-2 home win over the lowest paid side in the division for the current ‘brains’ trust at Old Trafford to turn this ghost ship around.
The real high fliers since Interim Amorim was appointed are the Eagles, rising from the relegation zone like a high flying bird of some kind. Equally, it says something for the standard across the Premier League that Palace can be its third best side for almost half a season when delivering 1.81 points-per-game.
This period might best be titled: “what might have been, Arsenal.” When last we checked in, Liverpool had only dropped points in two matches; the infamous loss to Nottingham Forest and in a 2-2 draw at the Emirates Stadium. Only two of the six opportunities the Reds offered for the gap to be cut in the last three months were taken.
The notion of ‘taken’ is also blurred by the teams rarely playing at the same time, with Liverpool’s two rearranged fixtures muddying matters more. Nonetheless, when it comes to match weeks in which both clubs had a fixture, the score is 8-3 to the Reds if totting up who had the better result.
Liverpool drew at the City Ground in January before the Gunners won a north London derby the following night to claw back two points. In the six simultaneous match weeks since, Arne Slot’s men won every fixture whereas Arsenal dropped points three times. Game, set and match point.
The two recent Red draws fell between the cracks of these aligned matches. What is likely to prove Liverpool’s wobble for 2024/25 has seemingly occurred in this period. It needs putting into proper context though.
The Reds recently had a run of eight league matches which included six on the road, a balance which last happened (in a single season) in 1997/98. They took two points per away game in this stretch when visiting a pair of Champions League teams, the upwardly mobile duo of Bournemouth and Forest as well as taking part in the last ever Merseyside derby at Goodison Park. Everton would roll over for any visiting side before they’d concede an inch to their neighbours.
Perhaps the most surprising aspect of Liverpool’s increased lead at the top of the table is that they have only gained a point on their corresponding 2023/24 fixtures since mid-November. The only result to get worse was at Forest, a win which required a 99th minute goal to secure it last term. Here’s how each team has matched up to the previous campaign across the whole of this season to date.
Only following their recent victory at the Etihad did Liverpool move four points in front of what they earned from their 2024/25 fixtures in Klopp’s final campaign for the first time. To listen to the media you would think that the Reds were nowhere near the title race last season, yet here they are cantering to number 20 having only earned a few points more. Funny, no?
It feels remarkable to see almost half of the division having double digit swings for points change. But we also see West Ham have changed managers twice since the end of last season to be almost exactly the same, whereas Fulham are perceived to be having a stronger campaign on the back of an additional three points.
Some of the comparisons between the goal differences expected and actual have been truly wild. Aston Villa’s drop of 5.7 in xGD has cost them 21 goals in reality. Brighton have benefitted from the opposite of this (+4.9 expected, +17 actual) while both Brentford and Tottenham have improved their goal difference despite their underlying process getting worse, to the tune of -1.5 and -5.2 expected goal difference respectively.
As the above table illustrates, Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton have basically delivered the same as their promoted predecessors in results terms, when much, much better was required. Their plight is highlighted by Wolves’ mixture of being 14 points worse, fourth bottom in the league table and yet still odds-on to stay up.
The west Midlanders have even been a little unfortunate when it comes to expected points, unlike the teams around them. Another side who combine having two points fewer than they’ve merited with having a league position they theoretically deserve is Newcastle.
Their route to this situation has been noteworthy though. The Magpies won six consecutive league games around the turn of the year, something Liverpool (best run: four) and Arsenal (three) have failed to do in 2024/25. However, this scorching stretch was followed by two wins in the next six, plus they had a five match winless run earlier in the campaign. What are you, Newcastle?
Whatever they are, Eddie Howe’s Carabao Cup finalists are very much in the hunt for Champions League qualification. This is proving to be one of those seasons in which the race for the top four/five (TBC) is more interesting than the supposed title or relegation battles.
Sorry, Newcastle fans. As well as obviously losing the cup final later this month, the underlying xG data foretells a sixth place finish. As the predicted margin is small, all is far from lost; with Chelsea visiting St James’ Park in May, a seat at the top table could still be in play
Of the two, the Blues currently possess the marginally better record against their fellow sides in the top half of the league standings. This is another area in which the Reds have been the best in show this term.
There’s a saying: ‘Beat the dross, win the league’. This chart suggests, ‘beat the dross, vaguely compete for the league’ might be more accurate. As much as Liverpool, Arsenal and Forest have comparable records versus the bottom 10 sides, with Nuno Espirito Santo’s side holding the best average, against the better teams it has been little contest.
Fulham’s season has been downright strange. If they were as good against the sides currently sat below the midway point as those above it, they would be sat third with 51 points.
Marco Silva’s side are still overachieving against their standing in the Premier League salary stakes regardless. If money directly determines success as is so often stated, there is certainly room to question it as a blanket statement in the 2024/25 Premier League.
Even though the Gunners have suffered from more absenteeism than the Reds this term, they are still fielding starting line-ups that reportedly earn a little more. That’s London salary weighting, for you.
The biggest overachievers in terms of league position versus salary rank are Forest (who are 10 places higher), Brighton and Brentford (both eight). It seems the path to success for a smaller club is clear; either break PSR or be smartly run. Pick your poison, just don’t sanction the spending that Manchester United have unleashed on their very well paid, heavily underperforming squad.
Looking at all this data won’t obscure the fact that Arsenal have had lots of injuries whereas Liverpool have not. Everyone knows it, especially on social media.
Oh, right. I see. Interesting. Well, until that chart says Mohamed Salah or Virgil van Dijk, it doesn’t count. So there.
Plus, having avoided the likes of Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak recently, Liverpool have had luck with when they faced teams, right? We’ll find out in the next edition of this newsletter. For now, we’ll have to settle for seeing that they’re going to win the league ahead of better paid teams, and deservedly so. Nicely played, Arne.
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Once again a fantastic article. Very insightful graphs as well.
Palace‘s form is a surprise, however looking at their goal scorers, they seem to rely heavily on Mateta, so looking forward it could go either way with them.
Iraola best manager in the league this season behind or on par with Slot, considering squad quality, budget and injuries?