The Match, The Stat: Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle
Love Ekitike, Love Wirtz, Love Konaté
Top Five Stats
Liverpool have scored three (or more) goals just four times in the league this season. Two of the instances have been against Newcastle.
This was the Reds’ best non-penalty expected goal difference against a team not called Burnley in the league this season (+1.62). Update: this rose to +1.92 in Opta’s post-match review, topping even the efforts against the Clarets.
Hugo Ekitike has now been assisted by 10 different Liverpool players, thanks to Milos Kerkez getting his first for the club.
Mohamed Salah became the first player in Premier League history to record 10 goals and 10 assists against a single opponent. He has set up a goal in his last eight league matches against the Magpies, twice scoring braces in that run too.
Florian Wirtz has nine goal contributions in his last 11 appearances.
Best Other Stat
Ibrahima Konaté scored a hugely emotional goal in a hugely emotional season ❤️
Match Review
Do you approach a long unbeaten head-to-head record as an optimist or a pessimist? Liverpool came into this game having won 13 and drawn five of their previous 18 Premier League matches against Newcastle.
Of course, the 2025 Carabao Cup final undermines this league-only streak. The Reds’ performance at St James’ Park in August doesn’t exactly boost it either. Regardless, would an 18-game unbeaten run make you think a win was inevitable or that the streak would have to end eventually and it could be today?
You probably changed your mind during this match, in fairness.
Eddie Howe went with the same starting front three as featured in Liverpool’s 3-2 win earlier this season. The difference this time was that he had Yoane Wissa and Nick Woltemade in reserve, which wasn’t the case five months ago. Newcastle started well at Anfield, just as they had on their own patch.
As much as they were dominating, the visitors struggled to create chances. Only Sunderland and Wolves (seven) had failed to score in more Premier League away games than Newcastle this season (six). The only shot in the opening 25 minutes was a long-range effort from Hugo Ekitike.
Newcastle responded with the next four goal attempts, all of which were low value, all via set plays. There was very little football being played, which was ideal for the Magpies.
Ekitike had the first of what would become four Opta-defined big chances for him, then Anthony Gordon scored in the 36th minute. If Liverpool fans thought the game had been throttled by spoiling tactics to that point, they would have feared the absolute worst.
The match turned in a heartbeat, with just 138 seconds separating Ekitike’s two goals. You can trim that down to about 90 between Newcastle kicking off at 1-1 to them being 2-1 down, with about 34 seconds of that wasted on the Magpies taking a corner. In real, ball-in-play terms, it was less than a minute between each half of Hugo’s brace.
Howe’s side are not alone in suffering in similar fashion. Ipswich, Bournemouth, Brighton, West Ham, Southampton, Arsenal, Leeds, Wolves and now Newcastle have all conceded twice in under five minutes to Arne Slot’s Liverpool in the league.
After taking time to get going in the match, the Reds utterly dominated the second half: 1.40 to 0.08 on expected goals, nine shots to two, four big chances to nil. Gordon’s goal was Newcastle’s highest value opportunity of the match, at 0.13 xG, when Ibrahima Konaté alone posted 0.22 in stoppage time.
Liverpool’s third goal was encouraging in that the sequence featured each member of what you might term the front four. Konaté bundling the ball home for the fourth was perfect in light of the sorrow he has had to bear. All the feelings came out. Football, like life, seems to somehow find a way.
The goal sealed the Reds’ sixth win of the season against a team currently in Opta’s top 11 in the world. It’s Manchester City, one of the others, at Anfield next for Slot’s men.
As much as the attacking numbers will take the headlines, the gap between Newcastle’s expected threat (1.04) and xG (0.3) on the MarkStats model was more important. The 0.74 improvement from Liverpool’s perspective is their best of 2025/26. The Magpies might have had the ball in good areas but the Reds defended well to prevent them doing much of consequence with it.
“We are really disappointed because I thought it was a strong performance. 4-1 is really hard on us,” Howe said afterwards. Yet while Liverpool’s xG was 2.28, the xG on target values were 3.13 to the Reds, 0.53 to Newcastle. The finishing suggested Liverpool deserved to win by 2.6. A three goal defeat doesn’t seem far away now, does it, Ed?
Source for graphics: Opta Analyst, Dan Kennett, Match of the Day, Mari Murphy.
Lovely performance and result, despite the efforts of Newcastle's 12th man.
The biggest anomaly in the stats was them finishing with 11 players on the pitch.
I’m sure there is a stat that can define what Wirtz did (for the first) when he received the ball outside the box and four Magpies thought “we got you”, only to find out that, no, you didn’t have him.
But I kinda like just thinking it was fucking boss!