Liverpool 2024/25: Over/Under Review
I made five predictions ahead of the season and asked people to vote. How did we all get on?
2024/25, then. How was it for you? If you’re a Liverpool supporter, it was almost certainly better than you had anticipated.
Sure, you might have thought the Reds could win the Premier League, but that they would? Fair play to you if you were so confident.
A recent article on Cannon Stats in which Scott Willis revisited his pre-season predictions reminded me that I made some forecasts last August. The idea came from an Anfield Wrap discussion on whether Diogo Jota would play 28 league games this season. With that as a starting point, I crafted five over/under questions related to Liverpool in the league, putting my cards on the table here:
I also provided polls for readers to vote on what they thought the outcomes would be. It’s time to see how we got on.
Liverpool Points: Over/Under 73.5
Doesn’t this target seem quaint now? Bookmakers know more than most people about predicting outcomes, yet set their line for Liverpool here. They only rated their chances of clearing it at 56 per cent too.
The Reds hit 76 points in match 32 of the season, though even without Virgil van Dijk’s late winner against West Ham in that game they’d have been above the target of 73.5 points. Even a draw at Fulham the previous week would’ve achieved this too.
I went for Over, as did 96 per cent of you. “I don’t expect Liverpool to win the league but they are very capable of averaging at least two points per game,” was my verdict, proving that 50 per cent of the time, I am correct all the time.
The Reds finished with 2.21 points per game, which was their lowest average at any point all season. This prediction was never in doubt from day one.
Liverpool Goals Scored: Over/Under 79.5
“I think the Reds will score over 79.5 goals. I’m braced for the occasional frustrating nil on their ledger during the campaign though.”
Once again, I was half right. Liverpool’s solitary nil wasn’t just frustrating for Slot, it seemed to haunt him. His repeated references to the Reds’ defeat by Nottingham Forest became a running joke for fans throughout the campaign.
The Reds of 2024/25 joined a reasonably small selection of sides that got through a big league campaign with only one blank on their record by scoring in every other game. With bigger (read: Champions League) clubs pulling away from their domestic rivals, this happens more frequently than it once did.
While this target was met quite comfortably, it wasn’t as nailed on as the points total now looks. At game 15, Liverpool were behind the 2.11 goals-per-game average required to finish with at least 80 in total.
They then beat Tottenham 6-3 and thumped West Ham 5-0 in the space of three games to ensure the target was unlikely to be a concern again. Fittingly, the 80th goal of the season was the fifth in the home win against Spurs which sealed the title.
The 79.5 target was based on Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool averaging 80.2 across his nine seasons. Eighty-two per cent of you agreed that Slot’s first side would better this, so give yourselves a pat on the back (four fifths of you, that is).
Liverpool Clean Sheets: Over/Under 16.5
“I’ve set the clean sheet bar at 16.5, as the Reds’ average in the Alisson Becker and Virgil van Dijk era is 16.2 if we disregard 2020/21 which the centre-back missed almost entirely. As chance would have it, Feyenoord’s clean sheet rate under Slot works out as 16 per 38 games too.”
We’ve reached our first failure. For the team, not me or you; I said Under and you agreed, ahead of Liverpool amassing 14 clean sheets. It was the best in class in the Premier League this term, though Alisson’s injury issues meant that David Raya and Matz Sels shared the Golden Glove award on 13 shutouts apiece.
The Reds may have proved my prediction incorrect had the title race been closer. They accrued eight clean sheets in their first 18 games, which extrapolates to 16.9 over 38 matches.
Liverpool proceeded to concede a 90th minute consolation to Ipswich when 4-0 up, they allowed an 86th minute leveller to West Ham, before then abandoning the concept of defending almost entirely once first place was in the bag. Going a goal down to Southampton at Anfield was improvised rather than in the script too.
We wait to see how a back four with likely two new full-backs will perform next season. After all, Trent Alexander-Arnold was their best man for the fewest expected goals conceded per 90 minutes this season:
And as we’re on the subject of El Trent:
Trent Alexander-Arnold Assists: Over/Under 8.5
For this target to prove achievable, Alexander-Arnold had to maintain his career assist rate over about 2,700 minutes. He played this amount of football each season from 2019/20 to 2022/23, so doing so again felt plausible.
I thought he’d record at least nine assists, with 79 per cent of you agreeing with me. The flowers, on this occasion, go to the 21 per cent, as number 66 completed his final Premier League campaign with Liverpool by setting up six goals.
He made 12 appearances (eight starts) after reaching that mark, so it wasn’t inconceivable that another three assists might have fallen his way. Alexander-Arnold did though get fewer assists than the chances he created merited for the third campaign in a row.
Equally, he benefitted from some freebies early on when making his name. The scouser in the team saw his expected and actual figures more-or-less level off against each other across his whole body of work.
I wonder if he’ll get at least nine league assists next season? Not really; I don’t care.
Diogo Jota Appearances: Over/Under 27.5
“In only one of his four seasons with the Reds has Jota made more than 22 league appearances - 35 in 2021/22 - whereas he recorded 33+ in every year of his three in the west Midlands.”
Our final category was the only one in which I and the voters differed. The public went 52-48 in favour of the wrong selection. That seems familiar for some reason.
However, had Klopp still been in charge then maybe Jota’s 26 league appearances would’ve become 29. Diogo inevitably had a couple of injury absences during the season, which cost him eight league games out of 15 missed in all competitions.
But he was also an unused substitute for both games against Bournemouth (which intrigues in itself) and the away win at Manchester City. As opposed to the home win against Manchester City. It’s nice to be able to type both out in full.
Klopp only kept a forward as an unused substitute twice in the league in his final campaign, once when his side had gone down to nine men. He didn’t do this in any game in any competition the season before. Had Slot emulated his predecessor in this regard, Jota likely would have featured in over 27.5 league games.
The Liverpool head coach is very much his own man, though. He’ll be looking for extra goals and more clean sheets from a side shorn of Alexander-Arnold. Maybe Jota too, at least as a regular starter.
Defending the league title means the targets will also be higher next season. See you in August.
As 2.21 points per game is this season‘s floor, what do you think the club wants to achieve next season?
I’m surprised Jota came that close!